Kihei, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

323
FXHW60 PHFO 220642
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
842 PM HST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to locally moderate trade winds and mostly dry conditions
will prevail through early next week, with a few showers possible
along windward slopes and coasts at night and over the island
interiors each afternoon. A series of cold fronts will approach
from the northwest next week, bringing an increase in showers,
particularly over the western end of the state around the middle
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 1750
miles east-northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending
southwestward to a location around 50 miles north of Kauai. The
resulting gradient is producing light and variable winds over the
western islands with land breezes developing. Over the eastern end
of the state light to moderate trades prevail with land breezes
developing in the more terrain sheltered locations. Infrared
satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions in most areas.
Radar imagery shows a few windward showers from Oahu eastward to
the Big Island, as well as over leeward Big Island. Main short
term focus revolves around wind trends and rain chances.

The ridge of high pressure just north of Kauai will remain nearly
stationary tonight and Saturday, allowing land and sea breezes to
dominate over the western islands, while light to moderate trades
hold over the eastern end of the state. A new high building north
of the area could bring a brief return of light to moderate
trades across the entire island chain Sunday, but this appears
short lived as an approaching front eases the trades again Monday.
Light to moderate trades may fill back in again Tuesday, followed
by a transition to more southerly flow at light to moderate
speeds Wednesday and Thursday in advance of another approaching
front. This front is forecast to lift back northward as a warm
front late next week, allowing a return of light to moderate east
to southeast winds across the state.

As for the remaining weather details, mostly dry and stable
conditions should prevail through Tuesday, with significant
moisture sources associated with decaying fronts remaining to the
north and west of the state. There will still be a few showers
moving into windward slopes and coasts each night, with a few
daytime heating showers possible over the island interiors each
afternoon. Rainfall amounts should remain light however with low
and mid level ridging keeping inversion heights suppressed. As
winds turn southerly in advance of another front Wednesday and
Thursday, the boundary layer should moisten up and inversion
heights should rise, bringing an increase in showers, particularly
over the western end of the state. A land and sea breeze pattern
featuring windward showers at night and interior showers during
the day may return for the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds with overnight land breezes and daytime
sea breezes are expected through Saturday night as the surface
ridge remains in the area. Outside of a few windward overnight/early
morning light showers, the best chance for clouds/showers will be
through the late morning and afternoon period over interior and
leeward areas where sea breezes become established. VFR conditions
will prevail.

No AIRMETs are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the northeastern Pacific, with a ridge
extending southwest to just north of Hawaii. The ridge will remain
nearly stationary tonight and Saturday, keeping light and
variable winds in place over the western waters while light to
moderate east-southeast winds persist over the eastern end of the
state. Light to moderate easterly trade wind flow will then
return Sunday into Monday as high pressure briefly rebuilds north
of the state.

The current west-northwest swell will continue its gradual decline
through tonight. The next significant northwest swell is due late
Saturday into early next week, with peak surf heights nearing and
potentially reaching warning levels along north and west facing
shores Sunday. Will likely need a High Surf Advisory or Warning
issued sometime Saturday. Another similarly-sized northwest swell
is expected to build in Tuesday night and linger through
Wednesday.

Small surf is expected along east facing shores over the next
week as trade winds remain light. Surf along south facing shores
should see a small boost Saturday through Sunday as a small south
swell fills in.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Tsamous